Fri, Mar 17, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 013 | 17 | 125 |
| CGY | 16 | 210 | 08 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:07CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:20CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 8:32CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P3 13:19DALBrett RitchieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:44CGYMark Giordano: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:35CGYKris Versteeg: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Hudler – Seguin2:27
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hudler – Faksa – Shore11:40
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Seguin – Ritchie5:29
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Faksa – Shore3:39
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Nemeth2:32
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn12:46
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Johns – Nemeth12:49
xG 0.51–0.62 (45%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:28
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 19–5goals 3–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:34
xG 0.83–0.44 (65%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Bouma – Chiasson – Bennett8:20
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer9:18
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton17:15
xG 1.06–0.35 (75%)attempts 18–12goals 3–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski16:58
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Brodie17:48
xG 0.39–0.89 (30%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).