Sat, Mar 18, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 1, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 05 | 18 | 124 |
| DET | 06 | 16 | 411 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:43DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 3:44COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Sven Andrighetto · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 5:20DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 6:56DETTomas TatarAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 12:44DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–4
- P3 16:18DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Green · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:35COLMark Barberio: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:21DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:25COLFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:16DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 11:07COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:20
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Bourque – Duchene – Landeskog11:10
xG 0.52–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg11:35
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Colborne – Nieto – Compher12:36
xG 0.20–0.60 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barrie9:42
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Barrie8:12
xG 0.41–0.16 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Lindholm8:13
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Mantha3:40
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar12:04
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Miller – Sheahan – Glendening6:41
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin9:45
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green14:32
xG 1.21–0.93 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
- Russo – Ouellet15:14
xG 0.54–0.30 (65%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser18:30
xG 0.04–0.41 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).