Sat, Mar 18, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 19 | 111 | 229 |
| CAR | 210 | 115 | 112 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29CARJordan StaalAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:59CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 5:38NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 14:35CARJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 18:11NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:34CARElias LindholmENAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.68 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:13CARKlas Dahlbeck: Interference2 min
- P1 14:46NSHYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 14:46NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:19NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:11CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Wilson – Jarnkrok4:14
xG 1.08–0.20 (84%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Forsberg7:55
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Fiala – Arvidsson7:10
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Fisher – Parenteau – Wilson5:26
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:06
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis17:44
xG 0.99–1.25 (44%)attempts 20–26goals 1–1
- Subban – Ekholm17:39
xG 0.77–1.23 (38%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNordstrom – Di Giuseppe – Brown5:56
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan12:22
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:21
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm8:45
xG 0.36–1.28 (22%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlbeck – Murphy10:17
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Faulk – Slavin15:45
xG 0.87–0.63 (58%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Dahlbeck – Pesce2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).