Sat, Mar 18, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 213 | 08 | 330 |
| MIN | 112 | 07 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54MINEric StaalAssists: Martin Hanzal, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:01NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Adam Clendening · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 7:46NYROscar LindbergAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 17:34NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–1
- P3 4:51MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:52NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:34NYRBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45MINEric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:45NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 5:56NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:56MINMikael Granlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:19MINErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:14MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestLindberg – Vesey – Buchnevich8:42
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Nash – Stepan – Miller6:05
xG 0.23–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller2:16
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello3:00
xG 0.01–0.03 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClendening – Skjei10:17
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Staal – McDonagh15:59
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
- Smith – Holden14:59
xG 0.28–0.39 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Hanzal – Stewart6:03
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Schroeder – Zucker10:09
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter8:25
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund4:49
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon17:15
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Scandella – Brodin2:23
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Scandella – Dumba13:21
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).