Sun, Mar 19, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 06 | 012 | 131 |
| MTL | 214 | 015 | 28 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Markov, Paul Byron · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 4:36OTTTom PyattAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:45MTLJordie BennGWGAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Alexander Radulov · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 3:30MTLPaul ByronAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 15:08MTLNathan BeaulieuPPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:47OTTMike Hoffman: Interference2 min
- P1 6:37MTLMichael McCarron: Kneeing2 min
- P1 9:51OTTViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:51MTLNathan Beaulieu: Interference2 min
- P1 13:57MTLJordie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:14OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min
- P2 15:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:44MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23MTLAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23MTLJordie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:41MTLTorrey Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:41OTTChris Kelly: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:40OTTBobby Ryan: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau6:31
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 2–12goals 1–0
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels5:14
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Ryan – Turris – Smith6:16
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Burrows – Brassard – Dzingel7:29
xG 0.01–0.35 (3%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci5:47
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Methot – Ceci2:15
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman3:41
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Gallagher11:33
xG 0.55–0.08 (87%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Shaw – Danault – Lehkonen8:37
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – King – McCarron7:50
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk9:52
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weber15:03
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- Emelin – Petry12:36
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Beaulieu12:30
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).