Mon, Mar 20, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 012 | 114 | 234 |
| TOR | 111 | 011 | 38 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26BOSDavid BackesAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:05TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 18:03TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 18:47TORWilliam NylanderENGWGAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.54 xG1–3
- P3 19:09TORNazem KadriENAssists: Connor Brown, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.54 xG1–4
- P3 19:50BOSDominic MooreAssists: Noel Acciari · Snap, 0.41 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:44TORNikita Soshnikov: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:44BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:47BOSKevan Miller: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:40BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:22TORNikita Zaitsev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:23BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:23TORMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:06BOSDominic Moore: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Kadri
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Nash
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Nash – Acciari9:59
xG 0.69–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Stafford – Spooner – Vatrano6:59
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand11:34
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak10:25
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug13:57
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Miller11:08
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo17:08
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 17–17goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown12:59
xG 0.32–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews8:00
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner14:32
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Boyle – Martin – Soshnikov4:15
xG 0.01–0.71 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hunwick – Carrick2:09
xG 0.04–0.00 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick5:46
xG 0.14–0.18 (45%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly6:38
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).