Mon, Mar 20, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 011 | 110 | 126 |
| NSH | 04 | 218 | 19 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:00NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 16:44NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 6:35NSHRyan EllisAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 16:05ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:25ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:24NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:09ARILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:09NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:52NSHRyan Ellis: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHolland – Pulkkinen – Duclair6:58
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Jooris – Crouse7:55
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Holland3:49
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pulkkinen – Jooris – Crouse3:13
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson13:07
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Michalek – Chychrun10:21
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:30
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson14:35
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Fiala13:31
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Sissons7:48
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith11:36
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis19:41
xG 1.38–0.57 (71%)attempts 27–19goals 3–0
- Weber – Irwin12:47
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm18:53
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).