Tue, Mar 21, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 18 | 19 | 322 |
| BOS | 18 | 018 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09OTTTom PyattAssists: Cody Ceci, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 8:57BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:34OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:17BOSTorey KrugPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 4:04OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Chris Wideman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:28BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:51OTTRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04BOSDrew Stafford: Charging2 min
- P1 17:01OTTViktor Stalberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:02BOSAdam McQuaid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:09BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:03OTTTom Pyatt: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17BOSFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:17OTTCody Ceci: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00OTTDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:28BOSDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Hoffman – Pageau8:43
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ryan – Turris – Smith7:11
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – Stalberg – Brassard4:31
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci3:09
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Wideman2:47
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson13:28
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Spooner – Vatrano4:22
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Acciari7:37
xG 0.17–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand6:25
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak7:43
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug11:18
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Miller9:00
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo10:17
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).