Tue, Mar 21, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 114 | 113 | 38 | 535 |
| TBL | 114 | 212 | 013 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:56ARIChristian FischerAssists: Lawson Crouse, Josh Jooris · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 9:45TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 10:06ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Max Domi, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 18:08TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 4:54ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 6:39ARIRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 18:24ARIConnor MurphyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:07TBLLuke Witkowski: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:52ARIBrendan Perlini: Interference2 min
- P1 9:21TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P1 9:45ARIAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:41TBLJake Dotchin: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:53ARIJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:53TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07ARILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:19ARIJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak9:39
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Jooris – Fischer – Crouse9:09
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Holland8:08
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Rieder – Martinook – Perlini9:46
xG 0.07–0.41 (14%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson14:54
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Murphy13:05
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- DeAngelo – Chychrun10:36
xG 0.20–0.68 (22%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Namestnikov – Drouin9:25
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Gourde – Vermin – Erne10:29
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point10:11
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 11–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr8:48
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Dotchin2:11
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison7:42
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).