Wed, Mar 22, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 112 | 27 | 328 |
| NYR | 011 | 214 | 011 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:46NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Derek Stepan · Slap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 3:40NYIAnders LeeAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Nick Leddy · Slap, 0.39 xG1–1
- P2 6:36NYRRick NashAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 5:01NYINikolay KuleminPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Joshua Ho-Sang · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 12:38NYIAndrew LaddPPGWGAssists: Anders Lee, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:13NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:32NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:08NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:12NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:12NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:38NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:59NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:31NYRKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:29NYRMichael Grabner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:18NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:50NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier5:31
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Tavares5:29
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Nelson – Strome5:21
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas4:58
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Mayfield8:56
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pelech16:53
xG 0.72–1.07 (40%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Hamonic – de Haan15:19
xG 0.48–0.83 (37%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:55
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Fast7:37
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Glass – Lindberg – Vesey5:54
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller12:41
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – McDonagh2:57
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Holden13:02
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh14:52
xG 0.99–0.88 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).