Thu, Mar 23, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 1, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 04 | 08 | 123 |
| FLA | 08 | 319 | 012 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20ARITobias RiederUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 7:38FLAShawn ThorntonAssists: Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 17:38FLAJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:04FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Thomas Vanek, Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jooris won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – McGinn – Holland9:50
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Rieder – Martinook – Domi4:35
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Perlini – Dvorak2:06
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McGinn – Holland – Duclair2:43
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Chychrun13:47
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson17:11
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 9–24goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Murphy19:09
xG 0.99–1.58 (39%)attempts 16–22goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov16:22
xG 1.64–0.67 (71%)attempts 22–13goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour12:52
xG 0.99–0.18 (85%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault11:05
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck14:01
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Pysyk14:08
xG 1.31–0.34 (80%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Petrovic – Matheson19:04
xG 1.23–0.65 (66%)attempts 24–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Demers20:07
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).