Fri, Mar 24, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 313 | 021 | 03 | 2 | 446 |
| PIT | 08 | 211 | 115 | 06 | 1 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:54PITCameron GaunceAssists: Matt Cullen, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:48NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Alan Quine · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 9:18NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:41PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:55NYICasey CizikasAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 13:50PITMatt CullenAssists: Cameron Gaunce, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 2. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
- 3. NYI John Tavares scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. NYI Andrew Ladd stopped
- 6. PIT Nick Bonino stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 10:01NYINikolay Kulemin: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:36PITIan Cole: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier10:15
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:28
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas2:40
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Chimera – Nelson – Quine6:52
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield14:16
xG 1.17–0.81 (59%)attempts 27–13goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan19:54
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 14–26goals 1–1
- Leddy – Pelech16:26
xG 0.35–0.73 (32%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Kessel – Rowney9:55
xG 0.67–0.43 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Kunitz – Bonino – Rowney3:48
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kessel – Rust3:54
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Hornqvist – Bonino8:56
xG 0.37–0.48 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz2:46
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Streit – Gaunce13:28
xG 0.55–0.64 (46%)attempts 25–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).