Fri, Mar 24, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 111 | 06 | 121 |
| DAL | 17 | 312 | 210 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30DALAdam CracknellAssists: Jason Spezza, Curtis McKenzie · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:58DALBrett RitchieGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Remi Elie · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 5:19DALJamie BennAssists: Ales Hemsky, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 7:08DALAdam CracknellAssists: Jason Spezza, Curtis McKenzie · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 7:57SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 4:59DALAdam CracknellSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 5:20DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Jason Spezza, Remi Elie · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:11DALStephen Johns: Holding2 min
- P2 7:51DALJohn Klingberg: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45SJSMicheal Haley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:10SJSJustin Braun: Interference2 min
- P3 3:12DALKari Lehtonen: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Donskoi6:32
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ward – Haley – Sorensen6:32
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl4:33
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ward – Sorensen – Hertl4:22
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon5:11
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon2:20
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Schlemko3:11
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Ritchie – Elie11:15
xG 0.80–0.27 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Spezza – Cracknell – McKenzie8:27
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Hemsky – Benn – Eakin12:43
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Sharp – Faksa – Shore11:13
xG 0.09–0.23 (27%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Oleksiak17:33
xG 1.45–0.25 (85%)attempts 24–14goals 2–0
- Johns – Nemeth16:08
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell14:41
xG 0.34–0.84 (29%)attempts 6–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).