Sat, Mar 25, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 03 | 011 | 115 | 129 |
| WSH | 112 | 014 | 37 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:31WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 12:29ARIPeter HollandAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 15:21WSHDaniel WinnikGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 15:53WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 18:21WSHDaniel WinnikENAssists: Jay Beagle, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:31ARIAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:47ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:47ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:41WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:40WSHJay Beagle: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:03ARILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:58WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:58ARIPeter Holland: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRieder – Jooris – Crouse2:39
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Holland – Duclair – Domi4:24
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Holland – Perlini2:14
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak2:26
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Murphy13:42
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Schenn – Ekman-Larsson12:57
xG 0.34–0.54 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chychrun13:12
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky7:36
xG 0.38–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson8:16
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov8:39
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom9:21
xG 0.30–0.42 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Shattenkirk10:01
xG 0.80–0.12 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:45
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:20
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).