Sat, Mar 25, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Rangers 3, Los Angeles Kings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 17 | 25 | 320 |
| LAK | 06 | 014 | 010 | 030 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:02NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Brendan Smith, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 1:50NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 18:52NYRRick NashENAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:03LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 1:46LAKAndy Andreoff: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:34NYRRick Nash: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:25NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P3 13:02NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:02LAKDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:35NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Lindberg – Fast – Buchnevich7:10
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Vesey9:41
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:03
xG 0.33–0.60 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller9:05
xG 0.49–1.07 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Skjei13:39
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden14:52
xG 0.32–0.58 (35%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:49
xG 0.32–1.38 (19%)attempts 9–36goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson10:43
xG 0.87–0.09 (90%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Gaborik – Kopitar2:09
xG 0.37–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Andreoff – Brodzinski7:43
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Brown – Kopitar10:20
xG 0.64–0.58 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:20
xG 0.96–0.23 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- McNabb – LaDue9:04
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort12:55
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).