Mon, Mar 27, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 311 | 110 | 010 | 01 | 432 |
| TBL | 19 | 314 | 03 | 14 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Tanner Kero · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 9:29TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:17CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 13:41CHITomas JurcoAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 8:47CHIRichard PanikAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 11:45TBLJonathan DrouinAssists: Alex Killorn, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 12:47TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Greg McKegg, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 16:24TBLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 4:25TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:22CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 10:58TBLLuke Witkowski: Interference2 min
- P1 17:22CHIJonathan Toews: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:22TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 15:23CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:40TBLLuke Witkowski: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Schmaltz13:18
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Kane – Kero – Panarin11:48
xG 0.48–0.33 (60%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Hayden5:58
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hossa – Kruger – Jurco9:50
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson21:01
xG 1.34–0.42 (76%)attempts 21–17goals 2–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk11:56
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Oduya – Seabrook13:58
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestDumont – McKegg – Brown9:21
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Namestnikov – Drouin10:15
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Gourde – Vermin – Erne8:36
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Kucherov – Point12:57
xG 0.44–0.88 (33%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Witkowski6:09
xG 0.24–0.02 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman7:32
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stralman – Witkowski4:19
xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).