Mon, Mar 27, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 010 | 17 | 122 |
| STL | 05 | 216 | 27 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:53STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 12:28STLAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Nail Yakupov, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 1:01ARITony DeAngeloAssists: Radim Vrbata, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 10:06STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:11STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:20ARIAlex Goligoski: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:51STLRyan Reaves: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 9:25ARILuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:30STLNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steen won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Burmistrov – Fischer – Keller11:07
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Rieder – Martinook – Perlini8:58
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- McGinn – Rieder – Martinook2:37
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Domi – Dvorak14:07
xG 0.20–0.58 (25%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy11:20
xG 0.79–0.39 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – DeAngelo4:02
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Schenn3:36
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestYakupov – Sanford – Barbashev12:09
xG 0.66–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:28
xG 1.13–0.50 (69%)attempts 19–10goals 3–0
- Berglund – Perron – Paajarvi10:36
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves10:04
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo6:57
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo9:42
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson2:11
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).