Thu, Mar 30, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 113 | 19 | 231 |
| MTL | 317 | 08 | 38 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24MTLPaul ByronAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:04MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 13:19MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 10:41FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 3:52MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 8:45FLAMike MathesonAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 12:55MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Brandon Davidson, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 16:49MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P2 3:39FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:04MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P2 7:04MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:04FLAJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:43MTLShea Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:15FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:15MTLAlexei Emelin: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:15MTLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:15MTLSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Trocheck – Huberdeau2:27
xG 0.03–0.01 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Vanek2:17
xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Bjugstad – Marchessault4:48
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour5:18
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Petrovic11:03
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Kindl – Pysyk3:31
xG 0.02–0.08 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Matheson7:06
xG 0.14–0.21 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen12:42
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 12–14goals 0–2
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher10:12
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 4–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault13:43
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Ott – King – Martinsen8:57
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Beaulieu13:52
xG 1.33–0.23 (85%)attempts 20–12goals 3–1
- Markov – Weber17:25
xG 0.87–0.10 (90%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Petry – Davidson16:19
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).