Thu, Mar 30, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Nashville Predators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 19 | 12 | 317 |
| NSH | 08 | 09 | 113 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:42TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 18:43TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Connor Brown, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 9:37NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 19:01TORConnor BrownENAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:11TORConnor Carrick: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:29NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:05NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:29TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P2 10:38TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:42TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:03NSHMike Fisher: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:02TORRoman Polak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:22
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown9:05
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:40
xG 0.48–0.60 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Martin – Kapanen5:02
xG 0.00–0.53 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carrick8:25
xG 0.25–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Polak – Rielly5:39
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick10:06
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – McLeod – Watson2:29
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Fisher – Parenteau – Wilson4:06
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Johansen – Forsberg5:26
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:26
xG 0.33–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:58
xG 1.00–0.16 (86%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Irwin – Bitetto7:40
xG 0.10–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis17:48
xG 0.54–0.96 (36%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).