Fri, Mar 31, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 015 | 29 | 18 | 03 | 2 | 435 |
| NYR | 08 | 112 | 210 | 03 | 0 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:39PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:46PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Sheary, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 19:33NYRNick HoldenPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 6:46PITBryan RustAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 8:50NYRRick NashAssists: J.T. Miller, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:48NYRChris KreiderAssists: J.T. Miller, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 2. PIT Phil Kessel scored
- 3. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:15NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:37NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:49NYRNick Holden: Holding2 min
- P2 18:09PITMark Streit: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:30PITJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary12:40
xG 1.13–0.56 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Kuhnhackl – Wilson – Rowney6:52
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bonino – Rust10:07
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Kunitz – Hornqvist11:53
xG 0.48–0.68 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Schultz16:31
xG 1.78–0.65 (73%)attempts 21–16goals 1–0
- Streit – Ruhwedel9:31
xG 0.28–0.36 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Dumoulin14:15
xG 0.18–0.75 (20%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zibanejad – Miller8:51
xG 0.74–0.31 (71%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:03
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Lindberg – Miller – Puempel3:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Puempel – Buchnevich3:26
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Skjei4:50
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – Smith9:14
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Skjei6:43
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).