Fri, Mar 31, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 18 | 118 | 238 |
| CGY | 17 | 315 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:26CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sam Bennett · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:39CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–2
- P2 8:25SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Micheal Haley, Marcus Sorensen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:38CGYMatt StajanGWGAssists: Michael Stone · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 17:09CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Kris Versteeg, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 13:06SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Joe Pavelski, Paul Martin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:26CGYSam BennettENAssists: Alex Chiasson, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:55SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:55CGYMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:46SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:46CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:34CGYDougie Hamilton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:17CGYKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:29SJSMicheal Haley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:30CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:35SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:20CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson9:42
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Sorensen – Labanc2:08
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Haley – Tierney – Meier2:01
xG 0.02–0.09 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Tierney – Labanc7:10
xG 0.07–0.25 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns13:58
xG 1.19–0.63 (65%)attempts 30–13goals 1–1
- Braun – Dillon2:28
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Dillon12:50
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Brouwer – Bouma4:17
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett7:03
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:43
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan8:19
xG 0.35–0.45 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Brodie15:20
xG 1.32–0.50 (72%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski13:33
xG 0.32–0.69 (32%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton13:36
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).