Sat, Apr 1, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 111 | 012 | 231 |
| WPG | 08 | 29 | 211 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:15OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:29WPGBlake WheelerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:40OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Tom Pyatt, Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 10:43WPGAdam LowryAssists: Jacob Trouba · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 7:46WPGMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:35WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Bryan Little, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:44WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:21OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:31OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:41WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Stone14:45
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Burrows – Stalberg – Brassard4:54
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau11:25
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Kelly – Wingels – Dzingel3:55
xG 0.12–0.45 (22%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Claesson4:37
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Borowiecki2:07
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:28
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Armia – Copp9:46
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers16:34
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Petan – Tanev4:44
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine11:29
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Melchiori20:29
xG 1.00–0.59 (63%)attempts 27–12goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey16:10
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Stuart – Nogier8:29
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).