Sun, Apr 2, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Rangers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 16 | 28 | 323 |
| NYR | 08 | 28 | 28 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:33PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jordan Weal · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:57NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:10NYRBrendan SmithAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 7:01NYROscar LindbergAssists: Dan Girardi, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 9:10NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Derek Stepan, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 17:54PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 18:45PHIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:46PHIBrandon Manning: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:00NYRTanner Glass: Charging2 min
- P2 3:47PHIValtteri Filppula: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:16PHIMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:21PHIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:19NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 19:15NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Weise – Schenn – Couturier10:31
xG 0.11–0.08 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – VandeVelde – Bellemare6:13
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal9:57
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Konecny9:57
xG 0.12–0.89 (12%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Gostisbehere10:37
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov15:12
xG 0.18–0.67 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Manning12:36
xG 0.17–1.16 (13%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello9:24
xG 0.95–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller8:50
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Vesey9:14
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Glass – Lindberg – Fast9:55
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Skjei15:11
xG 1.46–0.45 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Smith – Holden13:56
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal14:51
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).