Sun, Apr 2, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 112 | 112 | 434 |
| CGY | 09 | 27 | 15 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:32ANAPatrick EavesPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 19:03ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:48CGYKris VersteegPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 10:01CGYKris VersteegPPAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 17:53ANAKorbinian HolzerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 5:42CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mark Giordano, Mikael Backlund · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 16:54ANALogan ShawGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:02ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:57CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:13ANAAntoine Vermette: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:49CGYSam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 8:33ANARickard Rakell: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11ANAJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:48CGYMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:08CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:08ANANate Thompson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Ritchie9:43
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Vermette – Perry – Rakell9:07
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:28
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Eaves – Rakell3:52
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Theodore13:45
xG 1.02–0.31 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:14
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Holzer10:00
xG 0.21–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Brouwer – Bouma10:27
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:44
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Chiasson – Bennett8:56
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:11
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stone – Brodie15:48
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton16:39
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Engelland – Bartkowski13:20
xG 0.43–0.96 (31%)attempts 14–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).