Thu, Apr 6, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 6, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 113 | 412 | 638 |
| FLA | 012 | 112 | 28 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16STLRyan ReavesAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 6:41FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Ian McCoshen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:37STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 0:55FLAMike MathesonAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Alexander Petrovic · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:36STLDavid PerronAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 7:45FLADenis MalginAssists: Colton Sceviour, Jason Demers · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 10:37STLPatrik BerglundPPGWGAssists: Jordan Schmaltz, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 13:49STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 19:01STLJaden SchwartzENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:00STLAlexander Steen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:50FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:42FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:33FLAMike Matheson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:34STLJordan Schmaltz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:22FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Berglund – Perron10:36
xG 0.91–0.58 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
- Lehtera – Paajarvi – Jaskin7:24
xG 0.19–0.11 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves10:23
xG 0.19–0.26 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Schwartz – Barbashev12:56
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko16:36
xG 1.23–0.71 (63%)attempts 19–21goals 2–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:37
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Schmaltz11:16
xG 0.14–0.38 (28%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Marchessault – Malgin10:02
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Vanek – Smith – Bjugstad10:17
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Jagr – Trocheck – Huberdeau12:35
xG 0.76–0.81 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sgarbossa8:19
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers18:09
xG 0.76–0.59 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Pysyk – McCoshen13:08
xG 0.53–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Matheson16:00
xG 0.44–0.98 (31%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).