Fri, Apr 7, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 213 | 14 | 15 | 422 |
| MTL | 08 | 17 | 114 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Luke Witkowski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 19:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 9:59MTLDwight KingAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 14:19TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 4:36MTLArtturi LehkonenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 4:57TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Cory Conacher, Jake Dotchin · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:30MTLNikita Nesterov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:33TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- P3 0:38TBLJake Dotchin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:50MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:32TBLBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:53TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Conacher – Gourde9:03
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point14:30
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Dumont – McKegg – Bournival10:36
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Drouin9:04
xG 0.08–0.42 (16%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Witkowski9:56
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sustr2:41
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman4:30
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Pacioretty – Danault12:13
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher12:19
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- King – McCarron – Martinsen9:39
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Shaw – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen7:59
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Davidson8:55
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Markov – Petry9:03
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Davidson – Nesterov6:14
xG 0.25–0.22 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).