Sat, Apr 8, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 14 | 18 | 16 | 318 |
| TOR | 19 | 19 | 312 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11PITPhil KesselAssists: Matt Cullen, Tom Kuhnhackl · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:40TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Roman Polak · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:30TORTyler BozakPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 7:55PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 6:51PITJake GuentzelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 14:30TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Matt Hunwick, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 17:12TORConnor BrownGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Matt Hunwick · Snap, 0.39 xG3–4
- P3 19:56TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Snap, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:51PITJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:01PITTom Sestito: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 6:41TORNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:38TORMatt Hunwick: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:32PITMark Streit: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Kessel – Kuhnhackl9:58
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Porter – Sestito – Simon6:48
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary12:08
xG 0.36–0.67 (35%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Wilson – Archibald – Rowney12:42
xG 0.23–0.84 (22%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – Hainsey2:52
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz3:34
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Streit – Gaunce3:52
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews10:56
xG 0.91–0.21 (81%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown8:51
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:50
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Boyle – Martin – Kapanen7:46
xG 0.13–0.11 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick11:11
xG 1.03–0.36 (74%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Gardiner2:29
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Zaitsev2:15
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).