Sat, Apr 8, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 06 | 110 | 00 | 227 |
| LAK | 011 | 06 | 28 | 11 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 4:52LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 13:53CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:05LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 0:27LAKDrew DoughtyGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:26LAKJonny Brodzinski: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:07LAKJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:50CHICorey Crawford: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:13LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:51CHIDennis Rasmussen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kruger – Hartman9:47
xG 0.68–0.07 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz10:25
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kane – Kero – Panarin12:10
xG 0.44–0.59 (42%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Hayden – Rasmussen8:04
xG 0.01–0.45 (3%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Forsling13:53
xG 0.73–0.52 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Oduya – Seabrook14:39
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Oduya – van Riemsdyk3:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson10:55
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:58
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Iginla – Lewis – Shore11:20
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Clifford – Brodzinski – Kempe7:33
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb5:15
xG 0.31–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – LaDue2:02
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort14:22
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).