Sun, Apr 9, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 05 | 011 | 19 | 125 |
| DET | 217 | 17 | 111 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09DETRiley SheahanAssists: Frans Nielsen, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 11:19DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–2
- P2 10:18DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 1:15NJDJohn MooreAssists: Jacob Josefson, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 17:27DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:59NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:39NJDJoseph Blandisi: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:30DETDrew Miller: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:51DETFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:13DETDarren Helm: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:46NJDStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestThomson – Blandisi – Wood8:16
xG 0.87–0.14 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Josefson – Noesen8:51
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Zajac – Henrique – Palmieri10:58
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Bennett – Hall – Zacha9:17
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Lovejoy13:34
xG 0.98–0.38 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Merrill – Kapla12:07
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Prout – Moore9:30
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar12:35
xG 0.90–0.44 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan9:17
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Larkin – Lorito10:16
xG 0.28–0.61 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Miller – Street – Nosek5:03
xG 0.08–0.83 (9%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green18:36
xG 1.37–0.54 (72%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser15:22
xG 0.08–0.50 (13%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
- Russo – Ouellet11:21
xG 0.49–1.26 (28%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).