Sun, Apr 9, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 320 | 06 | 332 |
| TOR | 012 | 29 | 011 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:03TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Roman Polak · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 6:36TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 12:32CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Boone Jenner, Gabriel Carlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:16CBJJosh AndersonAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 19:20CBJCam AtkinsonSHGWGAssists: Matt Calvert, David Savard · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:48CBJWilliam Karlsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 15:49CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:11TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 10:02TORTyler Bozak: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:33CBJSam Gagner: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner9:38
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Saad2:56
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Gagner – Milano4:58
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Milano2:45
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlsson – Nutivaara8:28
xG 1.29–0.34 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Savard – Carlsson5:28
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard9:53
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Martin – Kapanen7:49
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:03
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:04
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 17–11goals 2–2
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown9:13
xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick6:05
xG 0.47–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Rielly8:13
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carrick6:41
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).