Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 4, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg

Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Winnipeg Jets 2

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7

Final

Home

Winnipeg Jets

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.

WPG winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR31118312731
WPG017010210237

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:45TORNazem KadriPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:40TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:23TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
  4. P2 8:32TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–0
  5. P3 0:36TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Nazem Kadri, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–0
  6. P3 8:07TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.37 xG6–0
  7. P3 11:31WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Patrik Laine, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.13 xG6–1
  8. P3 11:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Connor Carrick, Andreas Borgman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG7–1
  9. P3 12:57WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.18 xG7–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 2:41TORMorgan Rielly: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 6:26TORLeo Komarov: Illegal equipment2 min
  3. P1 11:21TORConnor Brown: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 15:00WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 19:35TORJake Gardiner: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 5:43TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 10:28TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 13:21WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
  9. P3 3:38TORAndreas Borgman: Interference2 min
  10. P3 6:00WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
  11. P3 7:51WPGTyler Myers: Slashing2 min · PPG
  12. P3 9:25TORMorgan Rielly: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WPG
46% to win54% to win
← TOR attackWPG attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Scheifele
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORWPG
31Shots on goal37
3.4Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts71
35Faceoffs won28
4Power plays8
16Penalty minutes8
16Hits18
24Blocked shots14
10Giveaways7
1Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner7:20

    xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0

  2. Marleau – Komarov – Kadri6:46

    xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0

  3. Fehr – Martin – Brown5:43

    xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1

  4. Hyman – Nylander – Matthews6:44

    xG 0.07–0.33 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarrick – Borgman11:16

    xG 0.85–0.47 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 3–1

  2. Gardiner – Carrick2:04

    xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Hainsey – Rielly8:30

    xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers4:48

    xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  2. Little – Perreault – Laine4:07

    xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0

  3. Matthias – Lowry – Armia7:15

    xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  4. Little – Ehlers – Laine3:18

    xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMyers – Trouba2:03

    xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  2. Byfuglien – Morrissey3:41

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  3. Enstrom – Byfuglien6:35

    xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WPG 3.2 xGTOR 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WPGTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #951 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50WPG 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.

WPG winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).