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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 4, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg

Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Winnipeg Jets 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 52% of the time.

WPG winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:38Shot by Morrissey, saved by Andersen
  3. P1 0:49Shot by Matthias, saved by Andersen
  4. P1 1:03Shot by Little, saved by Andersen
  5. P1 1:46Shot by Fehr, saved by Mason
  6. P1 2:41Rielly: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Myers, Kulikov, Copp, Dano, Tanev · TOR Hainsey, Komarov, Martin, Kadri, Rielly

  7. P1 3:42Shot by Laine, saved by Andersen5v4
  8. P1 3:50Shot by Byfuglien, saved by Andersen5v4
  9. P1 4:30Shot by Myers, saved by Andersen5v4
  10. P1 4:39Shot by Ehlers, saved by Andersen5v4
  11. P1 4:49Shot by Trouba, saved by Andersen
  12. P1 5:11Shot by Marleau, saved by Mason
  13. P1 5:54Shot by Ehlers, saved by Andersen
  14. P1 6:26Komarov: Illegal equipment (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Matthias, Kulikov, Lowry, Armia, Morrissey · TOR Marleau, Hainsey, Komarov, Kadri, Rielly

  15. P1 7:12Shot by Hainsey, saved by Mason5v4
  16. P1 8:08Shot by Morrissey, saved by Andersen5v4
  17. P1 9:21Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Mason
  18. P1 10:03Shot by Byfuglien, saved by Andersen
  19. P1 11:21Brown: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Wheeler, Perreault, Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey · TOR Hainsey, Fehr, Martin, Brown, Borgman

  20. P1 7:31Shot by Trouba, saved by Andersen5v4
  21. P1 11:50Shot by Lowry, saved by Andersen5v4
  22. P1 12:48Shot by Little, saved by Andersen5v4
  23. P1 12:56Shot by Trouba, saved by Andersen5v4
  24. P1 13:26Shot by Hainsey, saved by Mason
  25. P1 15:00Trouba: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Perreault, Lowry, Trouba, Morrissey, Tanev · TOR Marleau, Hainsey, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly

  26. P1 15:03Shot by Lowry, saved by Andersen4v5
  27. P1 15:40Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Mason4v5
  28. P1 15:45Goal by Kadri (van Riemsdyk, Bozak)4v5+18 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Myers, Kulikov, Armia, Copp · TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kadri, Rielly, Marner

  29. P1 17:36Shot by Fehr, saved by Mason
  30. P1 17:40Goal by van Riemsdyk (Bozak)+17 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Wheeler, Perreault, Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey · TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Carrick, Marner, Borgman

  31. P1 18:23Goal by Nylander (Gardiner, Matthews)+10 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Enstrom, Byfuglien, Wheeler, Perreault, Scheifele · TOR Gardiner, Hyman, Nylander, Matthews, Zaitsev

  32. P1 19:35Gardiner: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Little, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Laine · TOR van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Marner, Zaitsev

  33. P1 19:53Shot by Lowry, saved by Andersen5v4
  34. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  35. P1 15:43Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Mason4v5
  36. P2 0:00Period start
  37. P2 2:10Shot by Matthias, saved by Andersen
  38. P2 2:38Shot by Byfuglien, saved by Andersen
  39. P2 2:40Shot by Copp, saved by Andersen
  40. P2 5:43Marner: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Matthias, Lowry, Armia, Trouba, Morrissey · TOR Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Zaitsev

  41. P2 6:12Shot by Scheifele, saved by Andersen5v4
  42. P2 6:22Shot by Scheifele, saved by Andersen5v4
  43. P2 6:43Shot by Rielly, saved by Mason5v4
  44. P2 7:39Shot by Myers, saved by Andersen5v4
  45. P2 8:02Shot by Trouba, saved by Andersen
  46. P2 8:32Goal by Marleau (Matthews, Marner)+4 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Byfuglien, Little, Matthias, Armia, Trouba · TOR Marleau, Carrick, Nylander, Matthews, Borgman

  47. P2 8:48Shot by Carrick, saved by Mason
  48. P2 10:28Kadri: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Byfuglien, Little, Perreault, Myers, Laine · TOR Marleau, Komarov, Gardiner, Kadri, Borgman

  49. P2 10:34Shot by Zaitsev, saved by Mason5v4
  50. P2 11:02Shot by Little, saved by Andersen5v4
  51. P2 11:50Shot by Byfuglien, saved by Andersen5v4
  52. P2 12:03Shot by Wheeler, saved by Andersen5v4
  53. P2 12:51Shot by Kadri, saved by Mason
  54. P2 13:21Morrissey: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Matthias, Armia, Trouba, Copp, Morrissey · TOR Gardiner, Kadri, Carrick, Nylander, Matthews

  55. P2 13:28Shot by Marner, saved by Mason4v5
  56. P2 17:25Shot by Kadri, saved by Mason
  57. P2 17:52Shot by Komarov, saved by Mason
  58. P2 0:00Period end
  59. P3 0:00Period start
  60. P3 0:36Goal by Marleau (Kadri, Komarov)+1 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Lowry, Armia, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers · TOR Marleau, Hainsey, Kadri, Rielly, Nylander

  61. P3 0:51Shot by Enstrom, saved by Andersen
  62. P3 3:11Shot by Lowry, saved by Andersen
  63. P3 3:25Shot by Marleau, saved by Hellebuyck
  64. P3 3:38Borgman: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Matthias, Myers, Kulikov, Lowry, Armia · TOR Marleau, Komarov, Kadri, Carrick, Borgman

  65. P3 4:58Shot by Trouba, saved by Andersen5v4
  66. P3 5:04Shot by Perreault, saved by Andersen5v4
  67. P3 5:54Shot by Byfuglien, saved by Andersen
  68. P3 6:00Byfuglien: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Enstrom, Byfuglien, Copp, Dano, Tanev · TOR Kadri, Rielly, Carrick, Marner, Matthews

  69. P3 6:34Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Hellebuyck4v5
  70. P3 6:35Shot by Kadri, saved by Hellebuyck4v5
  71. P3 6:47Shot by Nylander, saved by Hellebuyck4v5
  72. P3 7:48Shot by Borgman, saved by Hellebuyck4v5
  73. P3 7:51Myers: Slashing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: WPG Matthias, Myers, Kulikov, Lowry · TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Carrick, Marner, Borgman

  74. P3 8:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Hellebuyck4v5
  75. P3 8:07Goal by Marner (van Riemsdyk, Rielly)4v50 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Enstrom, Byfuglien, Lowry, Trouba · TOR van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kadri, Rielly, Marner

  76. P3 8:05Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Hellebuyck4v5
  77. P3 9:06Shot by Rielly, saved by Hellebuyck
  78. P3 9:18Shot by Wheeler, saved by Andersen
  79. P3 9:25Rielly: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: WPG Enstrom, Wheeler, Scheifele, Trouba, Ehlers · TOR Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews

  80. P3 11:31Goal by Scheifele (Laine, Byfuglien)0 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Byfuglien, Wheeler, Lowry, Scheifele, Laine · TOR Hainsey, Rielly, Marner, Matthews, Zaitsev

  81. P3 11:57Goal by Matthews (Carrick, Borgman)0 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Enstrom, Trouba, Copp, Dano, Tanev · TOR Kadri, Carrick, Nylander, Matthews, Borgman

  82. P3 12:57Goal by Perreault (Little)0 pts WP

    On ice: WPG Byfuglien, Little, Perreault, Kulikov, Laine · TOR Fehr, Martin, Carrick, Brown, Borgman

  83. P3 13:55Shot by Scheifele, saved by Andersen
  84. P3 15:52Shot by Marleau, saved by Hellebuyck
  85. P3 16:56Shot by Laine, saved by Andersen
  86. P3 0:00Period end
  87. P3 0:00Final