Thu, Oct 5, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 4, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 215 | 05 | 430 |
| ANA | 19 | 218 | 214 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Alex Goligoski, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 8:32ARIClayton KellerAssists: Alex Goligoski, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 9:16ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:20ARIMax DomiPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–1
- P2 13:50ARIChristian FischerPPAssists: Brendan Perlini, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 15:23ANACorey PerryAssists: Rickard Rakell, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 15:54ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 13:45ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 16:30ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:11ANARickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:40ARIAlex Goligoski: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:46ANALogan Shaw: Kneeing2 min
- P2 5:17ARIChristian Fischer: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:12ANADennis Rasmussen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:49ARIChristian Fischer: Interference2 min
- P2 12:17ANACorey Perry: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17ANAJohn Gibson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Martinook – Fischer9:12
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Domi – Keller11:41
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
- Perlini – Strome – Crouse7:58
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Rieder – Duclair – Dvorak10:50
xG 0.39–0.78 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Connauton8:27
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson16:55
xG 0.68–0.68 (50%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
- Goligoski – Demers17:28
xG 0.54–1.26 (30%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Silfverberg – Kase4:32
xG 0.39–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Perry – Cogliano – Rakell14:06
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 4–1
- Boll – Grant – Kase2:53
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Silfverberg – Ritchie4:39
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Montour11:39
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Bieksa – Holzer11:28
xG 0.47–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson16:21
xG 0.74–0.82 (47%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).