Fri, Oct 6, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 212 | 114 | 336 |
| TBL | 16 | 111 | 38 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 0:25TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:21FLAConnor BrickleyAssists: Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 17:47FLAMark PysykAssists: Radim Vrbata, Vincent Trocheck · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 0:59TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 6:38TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 14:30FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:46TBLOndrej PalatENAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:25TBLAndrej Sustr: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:35TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:47FLAJamie McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:03TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:33FLAColton Sceviour: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:40FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:49TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley7:13
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Brickley – Bjugstad – McCann10:00
xG 0.42–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Trocheck12:04
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:11
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson15:05
xG 0.90–0.23 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Petrovic – McCoshen13:14
xG 0.73–0.31 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad14:28
xG 0.52–0.29 (64%)attempts 20–7goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov12:49
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Palat – Gourde – Point10:51
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 2–1
- Kunitz – Dumont – Paquette7:02
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Johnson8:57
xG 0.15–0.73 (17%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Sergachev4:28
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman4:52
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 2–0
- Stralman – Sergachev9:26
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).