Fri, Oct 6, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 010 | 08 | 212 | 230 |
| DAL | 014 | 121 | 011 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:01DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 10:27VGKJames NealAssists: Nate Schmidt, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 17:16VGKJames NealGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:21DALAlexander Radulov: Interference2 min
- P1 9:10VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:54DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:33DALAntoine Roussel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:34DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 8:30VGKErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:27DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:19VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:22DALDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:15VGKJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:15DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:23VGKNate Schmidt: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:56DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Neal – Perron – Eakin8:49
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Lindberg – Marchessault9:59
xG 0.20–0.48 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Haula – Karlsson – Leipsic6:01
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek4:50
xG 0.02–0.63 (4%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Schmidt6:33
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Garrison – Miller9:30
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Garrison – Sbisa4:50
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin10:03
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Hanzal – Pitlick – Shore4:37
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark8:15
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Roussel – Faksa – Smith5:29
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:38
xG 1.14–0.36 (76%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Methot – Oleksiak9:57
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns8:12
xG 0.28–0.53 (34%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).