Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 315 | 08 | 535 |
| TOR | 518 | 011 | 313 | 842 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30TORDominic MooreAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:42NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 5:34TORZach HymanAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 11:07TORJake GardinerPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 13:59TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: Ron Hainsey, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P1 17:19TORZach HymanUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
- P1 19:37NYRKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.03 xG2–5
- P2 7:43NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P2 12:14NYRMarc StaalAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–5
- P2 14:06NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Marc Staal, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–5
- P3 7:17TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.17 xG5–6
- P3 9:52TORLeo KomarovPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.26 xG5–7
- P3 18:30TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.26 xG5–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:44NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:07NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:16TORNikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:23NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:57TORWilliam Nylander: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:00TORMitch Marner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:17NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 9:12NYRKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:18NYRRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Vesey4:12
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Kreider2:06
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Vesey5:24
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Nash – Zuccarello – Miller6:12
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – McDonagh7:46
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Smith – Skjei4:12
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Smith – DeAngelo5:47
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews11:52
xG 0.98–0.68 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:22
xG 0.95–0.74 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri8:35
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Moore – Martin – Brown5:40
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev14:30
xG 1.15–0.50 (70%)attempts 22–13goals 3–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:19
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Carrick – Rosen11:57
xG 0.23–0.83 (22%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).