Sat, Oct 7, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Ottawa Senators 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 014 | 14 | 02 | 1 | 230 |
| OTT | 011 | 014 | 111 | 02 | 0 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 17:26DETMartin FrkAssists: Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 18:09OTTDion PhaneufUnassisted · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DET Frans Nielsen scored
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 4. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 5. DET Trevor Daley stopped
- 6. OTT Derick Brassard stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:16OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Holding2 min
- P1 4:43DETTrevor Daley: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:40DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:23DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:17DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:08OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:58OTTMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:11DETAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:44DETLuke Glendening: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:25OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- OT 4:26DETLuke Witkowski: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFrk – Mantha – Larkin7:23
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm7:39
xG 0.08–0.44 (16%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar14:39
xG 0.30–0.85 (26%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Jensen8:37
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Green – Ouellet12:58
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Daley – DeKeyser11:17
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Dzingel8:44
xG 1.04–0.34 (75%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Pageau3:02
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Stone7:53
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Formenton3:26
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Wideman2:45
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Claesson – Ceci7:57
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Borowiecki2:59
xG 0.37–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).