Sat, Oct 7, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 09 | 010 | 026 |
| PIT | 211 | 19 | 114 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:57PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 12:52PITRyan ReavesAssists: Olli Maatta, Carter Rowney · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 0:33PITOlli MaattaAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
Penalties (23)
- P1 4:21NSHScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:16PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P2 3:22PITRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:22NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:59PITPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:27NSHYannick Weber: Holding2 min
- P3 2:49PITRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:49NSHCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P3 2:49NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:49NSHCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:22PITSidney Crosby: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:20NSHMiikka Salomaki: Holding2 min
- P3 6:23PITJake Guentzel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:23PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:23NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:27NSHScott Hartnell: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:27NSHScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:27NSHScott Hartnell: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:27PITRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:27PITRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:27PITRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:25PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:41NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Jarnkrok – Aberg8:41
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson7:25
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- McLeod – Watson – Salomaki4:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Sissons6:05
xG 0.51–0.94 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Irwin12:35
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Weber – Bitetto12:10
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:39
xG 0.30–0.93 (24%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel10:32
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Reaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney4:37
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- McKegg – Wilson – Sheary7:39
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin10:15
xG 0.23–0.73 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin4:55
xG 0.87–0.02 (98%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta2:21
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Schultz – Maatta6:40
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).