Mon, Oct 9, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 06 | 16 | 00 | 321 |
| TOR | 07 | 119 | 214 | 13 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46CHIJan RuttaAssists: John Hayden, Tommy Wingels · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 7:57CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Richard Panik, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 10:20TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: Connor Brown, Calle Rosen · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 7:52CHIRichard PanikPPAssists: Gustav Forsling, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 13:00TORConnor BrownAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 15:42TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 3:43TORAuston MatthewsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:24TORRon Hainsey: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:06TOREric Fehr: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:31CHIRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P2 11:14CHIRichard Panik: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:16TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:52TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P2 17:53CHIRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:07TORCalle Rosen: Holding2 min
- P2 19:03CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:34TORAndreas Borgman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:11CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:22CHIJan Rutta: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:36TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Komarov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Saad11:04
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Sharp – Kero – DeBrincat6:11
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden6:43
xG 0.10–0.29 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Hartman8:28
xG 0.17–1.43 (10%)attempts 4–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Kempny11:45
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Forsling – Rutta9:09
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook11:17
xG 0.26–1.03 (20%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews9:01
xG 1.38–0.12 (92%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:41
xG 0.58–0.25 (69%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Fehr – Martin – Brown5:00
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri8:36
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly11:32
xG 1.05–0.20 (84%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Rosen – Borgman10:59
xG 0.87–0.24 (79%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev9:33
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).