Tue, Oct 10, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 27 | 112 | 06 | 325 |
| MTL | 116 | 010 | 016 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15MTLTomas PlekanecUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:53CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 18:12CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 10:44CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:28CHICody Franson: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:53CHIJohn Hayden: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:09MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P2 8:52MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:42CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 17:22CHICody Franson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:32CHIRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Bouma – Hartman4:10
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Wingels – Hayden7:01
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kero – DeBrincat9:00
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Saad11:45
xG 0.57–0.88 (39%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook13:23
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Kempny – Rutta2:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Forsling2:04
xG 0.03–0.05 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Drouin8:03
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Lehkonen – Drouin4:31
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Shaw – Danault – Hudon4:39
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Plekanec – Byron4:02
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete11:03
xG 1.14–0.56 (67%)attempts 27–9goals 0–1
- Benn – Davidson12:35
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Petry – Alzner11:39
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).