Tue, Oct 10, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 315 | 26 | 530 |
| NSH | 19 | 28 | 314 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:08NSHScott HartnellAssists: Pontus Aberg · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 5:11NSHNick BoninoAssists: Mattias Ekholm, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–3
- P2 10:19PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Scott Laughton, Taylor Leier · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 10:35PHINolan PatrickAssists: Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 15:05PHIValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–3
- P3 5:03PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Jordan Weal, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 6:48PHIValtteri FilppulaPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 7:38NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 18:43NSHScott HartnellPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–5
- P3 19:24NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:57PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20NSHCraig Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:49PHITravis Konecny: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:49NSHSamuel Girard: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32NSHYannick Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:23NSHP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:38NSHP.K. Subban: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:18NSHScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:19PHIDale Weise: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:19PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:43PHIMichael Raffl: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:47
xG 0.38–0.36 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Weise – Konecny – Patrick10:36
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl8:34
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier10:09
xG 0.34–0.88 (28%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Sanheim9:49
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Provorov14:08
xG 0.40–0.72 (35%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg15:59
xG 0.44–1.06 (29%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Bonino – Aberg9:12
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- McLeod – Watson – Salomaki5:40
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:25
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Forsberg – Fiala5:44
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban15:01
xG 1.20–0.45 (73%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Girard16:28
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Weber – Irwin11:14
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).