Wed, Oct 11, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 05 | 214 | 323 |
| COL | 111 | 315 | 211 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 17:06BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:00COLNail YakupovAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:37COLSven AndrighettoPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 15:43COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 11:30BOSTim SchallerAssists: Danton Heinen, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 12:57BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–4
- P3 18:26COLSven AndrighettoENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
- P3 18:50COLTyson JostENAssists: J.T. Compher, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:45BOSDanton Heinen: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:59BOSMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:59COLMark Barberio: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:09COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:54BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min
- P2 7:39COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P2 11:53BOSAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:42BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:28BOSFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 16:03BOSTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:22COLErik Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:59COLColin Wilson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Schaller – Heinen5:26
xG 0.62–0.14 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Spooner – Vatrano6:12
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Marchand – Nash – Pastrnak9:43
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Krejci – Bjork – DeBrusk10:10
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy10:35
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo3:09
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Carlo7:49
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestAndrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:58
xG 0.75–0.16 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – Jost10:11
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Yakupov – Kerfoot9:43
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Wilson8:30
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zadorov11:53
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Barrie – Nemeth11:48
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Barberio – Bigras11:47
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).