Wed, Oct 11, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 213 | 010 | 113 | 11 | 437 |
| LAK | 015 | 110 | 220 | 00 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P1 7:47CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 15:44LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Jake Muzzin, Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 0:14LAKDustin BrownAssists: Drew Doughty, Alex Iafallo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 1:58LAKDustin BrownAssists: Derek Forbort, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 10:59CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:02CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:54LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:35CGYMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:09CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P1 15:58LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P1 16:43CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:36LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:36LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:26LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:13CGYMike Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 15:29LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:06CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:25CGYTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:25LAKDustin Brown: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jagr – Versteeg – Bennett7:46
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:10
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Stajan – Glass – Brouwer5:29
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan8:44
xG 0.06–0.82 (7%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton10:14
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Stone – Bartkowski11:48
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brodie15:36
xG 0.33–1.59 (17%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:47
xG 1.25–0.23 (84%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Lewis – Shore – Kempe3:00
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson6:10
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore2:57
xG 0.03–0.05 (36%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort13:25
xG 1.26–0.19 (87%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Folin10:46
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 23–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).