Thu, Oct 12, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 216 | 112 | 440 |
| TBL | 216 | 312 | 06 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07TBLSlater KoekkoekAssists: Chris Kunitz, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 13:46PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 19:59TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 3:49TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 8:58PITConor ShearyAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 9:49TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Braydon Coburn, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 14:24PITBryan RustPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P2 17:55TBLSlater KoekkoekGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 10:01PITMatt HunwickAssists: Greg McKegg, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:42TBLDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:07PITRyan Reaves: Holding2 min
- P1 18:39PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:37PITCarter Rowney: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:05TBLBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:06PITCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 12:55TBLGabriel Dumont: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45TBLSlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P3 2:14TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 19:02PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – McKegg – Sheary4:32
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- McKegg – Rust – Guentzel3:33
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin6:33
xG 0.04–0.10 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel7:40
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Ruhwedel4:01
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:31
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel4:54
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:13
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Palat – Gourde – Point10:22
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Dumont8:06
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov2:56
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin15:13
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi11:10
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Stralman – Koekkoek6:15
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).