Thu, Oct 12, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 110 | 05 | 225 |
| SJS | 26 | 112 | 08 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Mikkel Boedker · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:26BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 15:11SJSChris TierneyAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 6:50BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Zemgus Girgensons · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 14:30SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:36BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:02SJSTim Heed: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33BUFEvander Kane: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:05SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:18SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:35BUFMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Larsson – Reinhart9:39
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Kane13:14
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Griffith7:35
xG 0.01–0.42 (3%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Eichel11:08
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Tennyson14:59
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Gorges – McCabe11:58
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen18:20
xG 0.38–1.31 (22%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Tierney – Meier8:06
xG 0.89–0.02 (98%)attempts 14–1goals 2–0
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl11:37
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc10:11
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Hansen – Carpenter – Karlsson8:39
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Heed9:15
xG 1.04–0.33 (76%)attempts 11–13goals 2–2
- Burns – Ryan18:04
xG 0.55–0.24 (70%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun15:34
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).