Fri, Oct 13, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Detroit Red Wings 6, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 19 | 412 | 627 |
| VGK | 09 | 312 | 06 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Trevor Daley · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:12VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 14:46DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Darren Helm, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 15:18VGKJames NealAssists: David Perron, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:45VGKErik HaulaAssists: Luca Sbisa, Brendan Leipsic · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 4:42DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 7:03DETFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 10:49DETGustav NyquistAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 14:56DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:55DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:49DETMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:59VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:03VGKNate Schmidt: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:03DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:55DETFrans Nielsen: Interference2 min
- P3 13:37DETTomas Tatar: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:37VGKErik Haula: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha7:53
xG 0.64–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin6:27
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Tatar – Larkin3:41
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Glendening2:03
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green16:25
xG 1.07–0.62 (63%)attempts 21–13goals 3–1
- Ericsson – Jensen2:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson15:31
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Karlsson – Leipsic8:47
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 1–2
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek10:26
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Lindberg – Marchessault12:23
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Neal – Perron – Eakin13:35
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb18:31
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Garrison – Miller11:49
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 1–3
- Sbisa – Schmidt16:56
xG 0.60–1.20 (33%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).