Sat, Oct 14, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 05 | 19 | 129 |
| TBL | 09 | 113 | 15 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:20TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 6:27TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vladislav Namestnikov · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 16:37STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:25TBLAnton Stralman: Interference2 min
- P2 7:00STLIvan Barbashev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:51TBLSlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min
- P3 2:51STLJaden Schwartz: Holding2 min
- P3 19:10TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Barbashev5:59
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Sobotka – Tarasenko2:52
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Barbashev3:43
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Paajarvi – Tarasenko8:35
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn8:16
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Parayko – Dunn3:47
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko9:02
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:07
xG 0.95–0.24 (80%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Palat – Gourde – Point11:39
xG 0.28–0.26 (53%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Killorn – Johnson3:16
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette8:41
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Stralman2:38
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Girardi11:24
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Dotchin13:57
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).