Tue, Oct 17, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 416 | 112 | 539 |
| WPG | 08 | 111 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:36CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artemi Panarin, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 10:50CBJNick FolignoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 12:30WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:54CBJJack JohnsonGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 18:11CBJLukas SedlakUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 12:15CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Seth Jones, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 18:23WPGJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:30WPGShawn Matthias: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:18WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:24CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:28WPGMarko Dano: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDalpe – Sedlak – Dubois8:46
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Foligno – Calvert – Bjorkstrand12:03
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Dubinsky – Anderson – Milano10:48
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Wennberg – Panarin13:58
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard19:00
xG 1.13–0.44 (72%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski17:28
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 21–11goals 3–1
- Murray – Nutivaara14:37
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Dano – Petan4:03
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine6:13
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor6:26
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Matthias – Copp – Tanev5:51
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:35
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- Trouba – Morrissey16:09
xG 0.40–0.89 (31%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
- Myers – Poolman15:36
xG 0.39–0.98 (28%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).