Wed, Oct 18, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Montréal Canadiens 1, Los Angeles Kings 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 117 | 08 | 012 | 137 |
| LAK | 114 | 017 | 411 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31MTLPaul ByronAssists: Phillip Danault, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 17:12LAKMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Oscar Fantenberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 7:34LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 10:17LAKMichael CammalleriAssists: Adrian Kempe, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 16:42LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Tanner Pearson, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 18:24LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:08MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 15:39MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:56LAKTrevor Lewis: Interference2 min
- P2 7:15MTLJoe Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:29LAKOscar Fantenberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:03LAKChristian Folin: Holding2 min
- P3 18:50LAKAlec Martinez: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Shaw – Danault12:32
xG 1.26–0.51 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Plekanec – Lehkonen9:04
xG 0.55–0.78 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Hudon – de la Rose9:08
xG 0.72–1.10 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Drouin10:38
xG 0.04–0.58 (6%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Morrow8:30
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Petry – Alzner15:36
xG 1.59–1.64 (49%)attempts 20–24goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete18:29
xG 0.29–0.88 (25%)attempts 12–27goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Shore – Pearson6:24
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson3:24
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Lewis – Kempe5:23
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 3–0
- Cammalleri – Auger – Kempe2:24
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Folin9:10
xG 1.38–0.49 (74%)attempts 21–5goals 3–0
- Muzzin – Fantenberg5:56
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez6:20
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).