Thu, Oct 19, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 115 | 110 | 233 |
| CGY | 09 | 06 | 111 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:48CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Derek Ryan, Brock McGinn · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 1:09CARJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 16:32CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:19CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:56CGYTravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:39CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding2 min
- P2 13:50CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:57CARJustin Williams: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:57CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – McGinn – Ryan10:45
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris10:22
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Rask – Lindholm – Aho8:04
xG 0.15–0.22 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Williams – Staal – Teravainen10:13
xG 0.23–0.44 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce20:11
xG 0.78–0.52 (60%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin10:55
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury9:21
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Gaudreau – Monahan13:03
xG 0.66–0.32 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:33
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Glass – Brouwer5:56
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Ferland – Bennett7:43
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:14
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie17:31
xG 0.50–0.39 (57%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Stone – Bartkowski9:09
xG 0.00–0.49 (0%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).